Skip to Content

Enhancement of ability to predict impacts of human intervention on forests

Description: 

"In order to manage Australia’s forests sustainably, prediction of the likely effects of management actions on forest values is helpful. Examples include:
• The extent to which management for wood and non-wood production (for example
harvesting, water yield, fire control, grazing and recreation) are compatible with conservation of biodiversity, soil, water and heritage values.
• The rate of growth of wood production forests and hence the sustainable yield.
• The effect of changing fire regimes on the forest ecology and on the risk to life and property.
• The interactions between forest ecology and climate in relation to global warming and the carbon cycle." Commonwealth of Australia (2003)

Rationale: 

The correct wording for this indicator is: "Capacity to conduct and apply research and development aimed at improving forest management and delivery of forest goods and services, including enhancement of ability to predict impacts of human intervention on forests"

"The ability to predict impacts is required to ensure that long-term objectives are likely to be met." Commonwealth of Australia (2003)

"This indicator is a measure of the capacity to predict effects of human intervention on forests. This understanding is essential to the conservation and sustainable management of forest ecosystems." USDA Forest Service (2004)

Methods: 

"3PG (Physiological Processes Predicting Growth) calculates the sun’s energy absorbed by forest canopies and from this deduces the biomass production of leaf, stem and below-ground parts...Growth models at the stand level are used in plantation forestry...prediction and mapping of vegetation distribution and wildlife habitat...Modelling of the distribution and responses to disturbance of individual species may aim to assist in the conservation of threatened species....Models of the effect of stand age on the quantity of water yielded from forested catchments" Commonwealth of Autralia (2003)

Use: 

Montreal Process
Commonwealth of Australia
USDA Forest Service

Uncertainties/Research Needs: 

"Until goals or other direction on desired distribution of capacity are in place, little basis will exist for judging the adequacy of the current distribution of effort. Until consistent trend-line information is available over time, little basis will exist for judging what has been happening to the allocation of teaching, research, and
extension effort over time." USDA Forest Service (2004)

Reports: 

Australia's State of the Forests Report 2003
USDA Forest Service: National Report on Sustainable Forests-2003